From ITM:

http://iraqthemodel.blogspot.com/2005/08/breaking-news.html

"Saturday, August 27, 2005

Breaking News.
I was just about to go to bed when I saw the breaking news on Al-Iraqia TV announcing that an agreement has finally been reached on the draft of the constitution.

Update:

Humam Hammodi, the head of the CDC announced that the vote on the draft will take place tomorrow if the required number of Assembly members show up at the HQ of the Assembly (Saturday is not a usual day for parliamentary sessions) and if not, the vote will be postponed till Sunday."
 

Yes, fine. But will it survive a vote in October? At best it's a document riddled with awkward compromises, none too clear on Shariah law or women's rights, the kind of thing even Bush would say needs to "evolve." Which goes against conservative ideas about constitutions in the United States.*

*Except in the case of gun control.
 

So confusing! Check out the lead from Al Jazeera at 2:57 p.m. Makka time, 11:57 GMT:

“The head of Iraq’s parliament has announced that the Shia and Kurdish factions have reached agreement on Sunni Arab proposals and will forward an amended text to the National Assembly on Sunday.

“But the Sunnis denounced the text and called on people to reject it in the referendum.”

The Sunnis denounce the text proposed by them to which the Shia and Kurds are agreeing? Unfortunately, the rest of the article makes this situation no more clear.

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/9D805233-17FC-4999-9056-AE78E896C0FC.htm
 

OK, well perhaps you will believe me now!

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/IRIN/2bba21832e8dae71217ac995e85aa12c.htm

"BAGHDAD, 29 August (IRIN) - Iraqi officials signed the country's new constitution on Sunday, after many amendments, but the charter was still rejected by Sunni Arabs who call it an "illegitimate" document.

"We have finally approved and signed the new Iraqi constitution, this means progress and democracy in Iraq," said Khaled al-Attiyah, a Shi'ite member of the Constitution Committee."

Doom and gloom? A Whitehouse PR exercise? Seems not:

http://www.expatica.com/source/site_article.asp?subchannel_id=52&story_id=23176&name=Germany+welcomes+Iraq's+draft+constitution

"BERLIN - The German government on Monday welcomed Iraq's draft constitution while underlining it was vital to win broad acceptance for the document before it was put up for a referendum this autumn.

German Foreign Ministry spokesman Walter Lindner said drafters of the constitution had laboured under the most difficult of conditions in an effort to find answers to complex questions.

Leaders of Iraq's main religious communities now needed to make efforts to achieve acceptable compromises on outstanding issues, said Lindner.

Germany led European opposition to the 2003 Iraq war and has refused to send troops to the country. "

If the Germn govt who in the run up to the election is mentioning the war -and how it was right not to take part- as many times as possible, if this same Germany has something good to say then there might be something in it.

I dont always agree with your analysis but this time I dont think youre correct at all. Things seem to me to be going quite well, Bush doesnt seem to be losing control and the idea of letting the Iraqis do this on their own only setting a rough time frame seems to be the best strategy. Whther this gets past in October is unimportant as thats what democracy is about and irrelevant to your analysis talking of the summer month that will go down in history etc. This constitution is up for evolution btw because its a "draft constitution" that hasnt even served a single election. Surely to compare that with the US one is not fair?

Perhaps Ive missed a lot when on holiday, as I really didnt read the news for four weeks. I see no reason for doom and gloom at the moment, at least no more than normal.
 

Well, I'd like to be wrong. If this draft passes in October -- and the insurgency fades -- I'll be pleased. But the insurgency was also supposed to fade after January. Everything I hear about Iraq from people who've been there tells me things are not going well: We need more troops to hold it together. The American public is in no mood for that; so a workable constitution that passes in October may be the only hope.

We should really get a beer soon, though.
 

mmmmmmmmm Beer. Very good idea.